CSX runs freight trains across the eastern United States. Every time a shipper needs to move chemicals, car parts, grain, coal, or consumer goods from one place to another, CSX charges a fee to carry that freight across its roughly 20,000 miles of track. The company earns money in four main ways: merchandise shipments (things like chemicals, food, and metals), intermodal containers (big steel boxes moved by both train and truck), coal, and trucking through its subsidiary Quality Carriers. Merchandise alone brought in $8.8 billion of the company's $14.1 billion in total revenue in 2025. The diagram below traces where the money goes.

Five years of financial data tell a clear story about where CSX stands today. Revenue climbed from $12.5 billion in 2021 to a peak of $14.9 billion in 2022, then slipped each year after that, landing at $14.1 billion in 2025. That is a three-year slide. Operating cash flow followed the same arc, rising from $5.1 billion in 2021 to $5.5 billion in 2022 and 2023, then dropping to $4.6 billion in 2025. Free cash flow, the money left over after the company pays for its infrastructure, tells an even sharper story.

The drop in free cash flow from $3.4 billion in 2022 to $1.7 billion in 2025 happened for several reasons at once. Revenue fell. Expenses rose 3% in 2025 even as revenue shrank. Capital spending jumped from $2.5 billion in 2024 to $2.9 billion in 2025, partly because Hurricane Helene damaged the Blue Ridge subdivision and CSX had to spend roughly $470 million rebuilding it. The company also had to pay $429 million in taxes that had been postponed from the prior year. Net debt kept climbing every year, from $13.9 billion in 2021 to $17.5 billion in 2025.

Even with these pressures, CSX kept returning cash to shareholders. The company raised its quarterly dividend for the 21st consecutive year in 2025, paid out $972 million in dividends, and repurchased $1.4 billion of its own shares. That commitment to shareholder returns is real, but it comes at a cost: the company funded part of it by taking on more debt. Operating margin fell from 36.1% in 2024 to 32.1% in 2025, a drop of four percentage points in a single year.

There is also a structural problem hiding inside the revenue mix. Coal brought in $1.9 billion in 2025, about 13% of total revenue. But coal revenue fell 15% in just one year, from $2.247 billion in 2024 to $1.9 billion in 2025. Power plants are burning less coal because natural gas is cheaper and environmental rules are tightening. That pressure is not going away. As coal fades, CSX needs other parts of the business to grow fast enough to fill the gap.

Intermodal is the business CSX is counting on to offset coal's decline. In 2025 it was the only major segment where volume actually grew, up 4% to 3.0 million units. International container shipments rose, driven by higher port volumes and new customer wins. But intermodal revenue only increased $26 million, to $2.1 billion, because revenue per unit fell 2%. The business is growing in volume but not yet growing strongly in dollars.

Regulation is one of the most serious risks CSX faces. Congress and the STB can change the rules on pricing and access at any time, and any new rule forcing CSX to open its tracks to competitors or cap its rates could cut directly into profits. Then there is the cybersecurity risk. CSX runs its entire network through computer systems. A successful cyberattack could stop trains, cause accidents, or shut down operations for days, with costs that could exceed what insurance covers. And because federal law requires railroads to carry hazardous materials even when they would rather not, a single serious accident involving dangerous cargo could trigger cleanup costs and lawsuits far beyond normal insurance limits.

CSX also faces a competitive threat that did not exist a year ago. In 2025, its main rival Norfolk Southern Railway entered into an agreement to merge with Union Pacific Railroad. If that merger is approved by the STB, it would create the only transcontinental rail network in the United States. That would put a much larger, coast-to-coast competitor alongside CSX in its core eastern markets.